What are the chances?

Hi guys, I'm a new member here and this is my first post. I've been reading this forum for a while, and the more I read it the more I realize I have a complicated situation in my hands.

Thanks for the reply!

Your circumstances and facts appear to be complex. Many individual cases have circumstances particular to that case, circumstances which may have a significant influence on the outcome, be it RQ or even an unfavorable decision. When it is complex and, as in this instance, a close call, it is indeed a difficult decision for which it is worth really working your way through the full analysis.

You clearly meet the "basic residence" test, but do not meet the 1095 days of actual, physical presence test. Thus, you could be granted citizenship but along the way would definitely face RQ. Whether you would be granted citizenship or not would depend on whether the citizenship judge is satisfied that your "residency" in Canada, notwithstanding your absences, is sufficient to warrant a grant of citizenship.

Your posts are a bit confusing about the physical presence test, since in your first post you say you are about 10 days short by that test, but in your other post you say it will be over another year before you would be able to meet that test.

If you are several hundred days short of meeting the actual, physical presence test, probably best to wait until you do meet it.

If, however, you are indeed just ten days short but waiting another ten days will not cure your residency because it is based in part on presence four years ago which days fall off the calendar (become more than four years ago) going forward, you might indeed be better off applying sooner rather than waiting another full year and a few months. But the wisdom of doing this depends a great deal on your personal circumstances and residential history.

Review the applicable operational manual CP 5 Residence, particularly section 5 regarding "policy for persons who have absences from Canada" beginning near the bottom of page 11.

Also see the FAQs about the rules of calculation, and see question 8 in particular. After giving an admonition about the RQ process, it says:

Deciding to apply with fewer than 1,095 days of physical presence is a personal decision that should be made carefully and take into account your personal circumstances.

This means what it says. For some people it is still a good idea to go ahead and apply with fewer than 1095 days actual physical presence. Not a good idea for anyone who can simply wait out a reasonable amount of additional time and thereby meet this test. But it is a good idea for some people who have expected periodic absences which will significantly delay (or even effectively preclude) their meeting the actual, physical presence test.

Again, see section 5 in CP 5 Residence, to get a better overview of this process. If you are up to more research, you may also want to look at some of the cases I cite and link in this thread. But only you (or you in consultation with a lawyer) can fully assess all your circumstances and make the right decision about when to apply for citizenship.