Disappointing Q3-2012 citizenship statistics

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A key thing to keep in mind, though, is that while the process is inordinately slow for everyone, there is a big difference between those given RQ and those who are processed as a "routine case." 

There are many here who distort things and who paint the process with a very broad, dark brush that tends to give the impression that everyone is suffering the same as if the long-haul and difficult road imposed on those given RQ characterizes what everyone or nearly everyone who applies for citizenship will endure. Not so. Not by a long shot. 

The fact is that CIC did an audit, and has begun implementing changes in response to the audit, is struggling with the transition but engaged in making adjustments to the changes, all toward accomplishing goals like maintaining the integrity of Canada's immigration system, making processing across the country more uniform, and balancing the need to scrutinize citizenship applicants more competently while keeping in check how many cases must go to a Citizenship Judge for a hearing. 

Certain aspects of the new process will indeed slow the process down for everyone. This is primarily the introduction of level one screening in Sydney (does not appear to be slowing down things all that much though) and the introduction of a mandatory pre-interview check process (this, however, does appear to be slowing things down significantly for everyone). 

How much will it slow down things? Not nearly so much as those who last summer and fall were predicting that nearly everyone would be getting RQ and RQ would take at least 18 months and therefore there would be, essentially, no more than a trickle of new citizens for over a year . . . those who for their own reasons now pretend to be shocked at how bad the 3d quarter numbers were even though those numbers indicate, essentially, that 20,000 more applicants got citizenship than they were previously predicting would. 

But we do not know. There is no way to extrapolate from last year's numbers about how long the process will be when the transtion to the new process is settled and a long-term, long run routine is finally established. 

We should know some, more, in about a year and a half. 

Again, that is for the majority of applicants. 

As for those wallowing in the quagmire of RQ: There really is no prognosis, not anything approaching a reliable one anyway, that will shed light on how things are going to go for the average pre-test RQ. It is clear enough that those who will remain in queue for a full residency determination will most likely have to wait years overall. How many years is not so clear. 

But I get weary of those who try to paint the dark and ominous path suffered by the few who get RQ as what the routine applicant is facing. It is grossly misleading. 

As I said: the REAL question is how long is it going to take CIC local offices to adapt and implement the new procedures and get settled into a routine. Until they do, the process will be dismally slow for everyone. Even when they do, it will probably be slower than it was before 2012. But that is about the best guess that one can make, and one can make that because, again, there are new, additional procedural steps involved, so it is bound to take more time. How much more? We really cannot guess. 

The other significant question, the one that many of those who got pre-test RQ are concerned about, is whether or not, and to what extent, the new procedures will facilitate some pre-test RQ'd applicants being put on a track for a file-review rather than a hearing, and to what extent that will affect their timeline. It will be a long while before we have anywhere near enough information to guess how this will go. 

Those are questions. They are questions that matter. They are not predictions. 

For the pre-test RQ'd, I have a vague guess based on a large measure of hope that, indeed, the new procedures will facilitate a significant percentage of pre-test RQ'd cases being tracked for a file-review and that that will in turn enable those applicants to avoid the long, long, multiple-year waits that those headed for a residency hearing will have to endure. But this is not a prediction. It is a vague guess, a vague guess based on a large measure of hope. 

In the meantime it is my perception that the view of many here is focused on how the process is affecting them in particular along with just a select number of others, with little regard for how the process, the system, works overall for the majority. I do not dispute, for example, that there are many, perhaps thousands, caught in the quagmire of an excessively long process during which there is a pathetic failure by CIC to reasonably keep applicants informed. I just think it is not fair to the majority of people who come to a forum like this looking for information about the process to be presented a picture as if that is how it works for the tens of thousands, over a hundred thousand others going through the process each year. 

For example, the idea that CIC would implement delays into the process to intentionally slow things down, to keep PRs from becoming citizens, that is utterly implausible, makes no sense. I tend to disagree with Jason Kenney on many fronts, and have the sense he is more into power than caring, but the idea that he is motivated by malice, by an intent to cause immigrants to suffer just for the sake of inflicting suffering, is, well, nonsense. 

Some people here look at the audit as if it was forced on the government, not something the government chose to do (one might wonder who they think made the decision to do the audit), and then they offhandedly dismiss that the changes that were started to be implemented almost immediately following the audit were implemented to address the issues raised in the audit, but rather they attack the changes as if they were motivated by some sort of Tim Burton created Grinch. Creative, well, some (not much actually), but utter fiction. Really, utter fiction. 

A lot of what underlies the ranting is that, yes, unfortunately, some people are caught in the quagmire of RQ and yes, there is not much hope for many of those caught in that quagmire of finding their way to the oath anytime soon, not to mention the onerous imposition of having to provide the information and documentation itself. 

But not everyone going through the process of applying for citizenship is going to feel that pain. Indeed, I am confident that most will not be suffering that pain (they will endure an inordinately slow process, but not the pain and suffering attendant RQ). The constant drum beating about CIC oppressing immigrants indiscriminately, as if that is a policy in itself, is simply unfounded. My reason for repeatedly offering a counter view in this regard is NOT to defend CIC. CIC needs no defense. It is what it is and does what it will do. My reason is that these hyperbolic distortions give a false view of what the vast majority of PRs applying for citizenship will experience in going through the process. I try to present what I genuinely believe is a more honest view of the process. Sure, this is entangled with personal opinion and some subjective interpretation . . . but I do make an effort to stay focused on ascertaining, as best we can, what is really happening, and how that affects a wide range of applicants. 